The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Saturday as Portugal and Uruguay meet in Sochi in the Round of 16. A 1-0 win over Iran would have had Portugal facing Russia, but the late goal that finished the match in a 1-1 draw yielded a much tougher matchup on paper.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 2.87 — indicate there’s a 35 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in in 27.5 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.6 – 0.88, in favor of Uruguay.
Welcome Back: Jose Gimenez returns to the lineup for Uruguay this weekend after being out vs Russia due to injury. Gimenez was huge for them scoring a late goal in the 1-0 win over Egypt in the group stage.
Head-to-Head: This will be the third meeting between Uruguay and Portugal, but just their first time matching up at the World Cup. The last time they faced each other was back in 1972 when they finished in a 1-1 draw at Rio de Janeiro’s Maracana stadium.
Defense Wins Titles: Uruguay have yet to concede a goal at this year’s World Cup. Their defense has been top notch with just six shots on target for their opponents in three games. The last team from South America to not concede a goal through four games was Brasil in 1986.
Making History: Portugal’s Cristiano Ronaldo will tie Bastian Schweinsteiger’s record (38 games) with the most appearances at World Cup tournaments and European Championships.
Scoring Opportunities: All five of Uruguay’s goals in this World Cup have been from set-pieces; Portugal’s last four goals have come from outside the box.
Ronaldo is projected to lead the way for Portugal with a 44 percent chance to net the ball Saturday vs Uruguay. He averages 4.5 shots overall per sim, 1.13 shots on goal per, and 0.58 goals per sim.
As of now, Ronaldo – with four goals scored — is second to Harry Kane in the race for the Golden Boot.
For Uruguay, both Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez have a 43-plus percent chance to score. Cavani averages 3.1 shots overall per sim, 1.42 shots on goal per, and 0.57 goals per sim; Suarez averages 3.28 shots overall per sim, 1.41 shots on goal per, and also 0.57 goals per sim.
The odds — at 2.78 — indicate there’s close to a 36 percent chance Uruguay wins this match. They win 53-plus percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting quite a bit of added value on La Celeste.