The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Sunday as Spain and Russia match up in the Round of 16. The 2010 World Cup champs in Spain have been largely underwhelming in the group stages, going up against the host nation that has been overachieving so far.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.90 — indicate there’s a 25.6 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in in 20 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.17 – 0.78, in favor of Spain.
Betting on the Total: AccuScore sim data would suggest taking the OVER if betting on the total. Odds, at 2.17, indicate there’s a 46 percent chance of the OVER. The total combined score goes OVER in approximately 56 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick.
Head-to-Head: These two nations have met six times in the past, with Spain winning four games and Russia none; the other two matches ending in draws. They last matched up in 2017, finishing in a 3-3 draw.
• The total has gone OVER 2.5 goals in Russia’s last 3 World Cup games.
• The total has gone OVER 2.5 goals in 8 of Spain’s last 10 World Cup games.
• Spain is undefeated in their last six matches vs Russia.
Denis Cheryshev is projected to lead Russia with a 25.3 percent chance to score. He averages 1.55 shots overall, 0.59 shots on goal per sim, and 0.29 goals per sim.
For Spain, it’s projected to be Diego Costa leading the way with a 58 percent chance to net the ball. Second behind him is Isco with a 32 percent chance to score. Costa averages close to two shots overall per sim, 1.12 shots on goal per, and 0.87 goals per sim.
Spain to win.
The odds — at 1.61 — indicate there’s close to a 62 percent chance Spain wins this match. They win 68 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on Spain.