The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Monday as Uruguay and Russia clash to decide the winner of Group A. Both sides enter the match following wins vs Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.09 — indicate there’s a 32.3 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 25.6 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.76 – 1.09, in favor of Uruguay.
On a Roll: Host nation Russia has scored eight goals in two group stage matches; that’s more goals than they had in their past two World Cup tournaments combined.
Keep in Mind: Russia has been playing well beyond expectations, but the keep in mind that the only top-level attacker they’ve had to contain is a recovering Mohamed Salah. Uruguay’s attack should pose a much tougher opponent.
Head-to-Head: Russia have won six of their last eight games overall vs Uruguay. In World Cup matches, though, Russia have lost their last four matchups with South American teams, scoring just once – including their 1970 World Cup loss to Uruguay.
Denis Cheryshev is projected to lead Russia with a 32.3 percent chance to score. He averages close to two shots overall, 0.72 shots on goal per sim, and 0.39 goals per sim.
Cheryshev is Russia’s top scorer in the tournament with three goals.
For Uruguay, it’s Edinson Cavani and Luis Suarez. Cavani has a 47 percent chance to score, averaging 2.3 shots overall per sim, 1.18 shots on goal per, and 0.63 goals per sim. Suarez averages more shots overall with 2.56 per sim, but fewer goals per sim at 0.56.
Uruguay to win.
The odds — at 2.55 — indicate there’s a 39 percent chance Uruguay wins this match. They win over 51 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting quite a bit of added value on side commonly referred to as La Celeste.