The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Saturday as South Korea and Mexico face off in Group E action. Korea enters the match following a disappointing 1-0 loss to Sweden, while Mexico heads into the fixture following arguably their most important victory in team history. Will Mexico use the win over Germany to catapult them to the Round of 16? Or will Korea get back on track and make things interesting in the group?
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Total: Odds — at 2.42 — indicate there’s a 41 percent chance the total combined score stays below 2 goals. AccuScore sims have the UNDER in approximately 56 percent of AccuScore sims. On average, the total combined score in simulations is 1.47 goals.
Weak Backline: Korea’s opening performance proved their backline is open for attack. If Mexico can attack and keep the pressure early, they should see plenty of scoring opportunities. Controlling the pace is key; if Korea’s able to sit back and slow the game down, Mexico will get frustrated.
Counter-Attack: El Tri opened up their World Cup tournament with an inspiring 1-0 win over Germany. Their team defense was phenomenal for the 90s minutes, focused on holding the backline and finding opportunities in the counter attack. It almost looked as if they’d score a second or third goal in the second half of that match.
Winning the Aerial Battle: Watch for how successful — if at all — the South Korean defense is against the aerial attack. They lost plenty of aerial duels vs Sweden, and will have their hands full against a Mexico team that will consistently cross the ball in.
Hirving Lozano is projected to lead the way for Mexico with close to a 21 percent chance to score vs South Korea. He averages 2-plus shots overall per sim, 0.72 shots on goal per and 0.24 goals per sim.
For South Korea, the simulations suggest Heung-Min Son has the best probability to score with a 23 percent chance according to AccuScore sims. He averages 2-plus shots overall per sim, 0.98 shots on goal per, and 0.26 goals per sim.
The odds — at 3.91 — indicate there’s a 25.6 percent chance this match ends in a draw. AccuScore simulations, however, have a draw in close to 37 percent of simulated matches — suggesting quite a bit of added value on the pick.
The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 0.96 – 0.51, in favor of Mexico.