The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Monday as Brazil and Mexico meet in the Round of 16 in Samara. Brazil heads into the matchup as fairly heavy favorites to not only win this match, but also their sixth World Cup. Can El Tri continue their recent brilliance, or will they come back to reality?
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 4.43 — indicate there’s a 22.5 percent chance the match ends in a draw (in regular time). There’s a draw in in 20 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2 – 0.63, in favor of Brazil.
Right Timing: Brazil started the World Cup on the wrong foot, but have picked things up in the last two games. They won their group following a 2-0 win over Serbia and look to be clicking at the right time. They — along with Germany — were the favorites before the tourney started.
Curse of the 5th game: There’s a curse looming over El Tri that dates back to 1994. In the last six World Cup tournaments, Mexico has been out in the second round — most recently in 2014 vs the Netherlands. They had the lead with two minutes remaining in regulations only to lose 2-1 in stoppage time.
X-Factor: Paulinho’s goal vs Serbia notched goal No. 8 for him since Tite took over as the coach. According to AccuScore simulations, he’s fourth behind Coutinho, Firmino, and Jesus in terms of best chances to score vs Mexico. Paulinho has a 25 percent chance to net the ball, averaging 1.5 shots overall per sim, 0.73 shots on goal per, and 0.29 goals per sim.
• Brazil have kept a clean sheet in 10 of their last 13 FIFA World Cup matches.
• Brazil have kept a clean sheet in their last three matches vs Mexico in all competitions.
• UNDER 2.5 goals has hit in six of Brazil’s last seven World Cup matches.
• Mexico have not scored a single goal in their four World Cup matches vs Brazil.
Javier Hernandez, aka Chicharito, and Hirving Lozano are projected to lead the way for Mexico. Hernandez has close to a 14 percent chance to net the ball; he averages 0.78 shots overall per sim, 0.3 shots on goal per, and 0.15 goals per sim. Lozano has an 11 percent chance to score, averaging more shots overall per sim than his teammate (1.5), but fewer goals per sim (0.12).
Philippe Coutinho leads Brazil in simulations, with close to a 4! percent chance to score. Coutinho averages 4-plus shots overall, 1.48 shots on goal per sim, and 0.53 goals per sim.
The odds — at 1.81 — indicate there’s close to a 55 percent chance Spain wins this match by more than a goal. They win 69 percent of AccuScore sims, by an average margin of 1.47 goals. At the very minimum, the safe pick is for Brazil to advance, Brazil last failed to reach the quarterfinals of the World Cup in 1990.