The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Sunday in a crucial Group H match between Japan and Senegal. Both sides enter this match following surprising opening performances, as Senegal took down Poland, 2-1, and Japan defeated Colombia, 2-1.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Total: Odds — at 1.54 — indicate there’s a 65 percent chance the total combined score goes over 2 goals. AccuScore sims have the OVER in close to 60 percent of AccuScore sims. On average, the total combined score in simulations is 3.09 goals.
Playing vs 10: Japan got the win, but they played a Colombia team that had 10 players for all but three minutes of regulation. Even against 10, there were times the backline struggled. Senegal will be attacking from kickoff, so this is something to keep an eye on.
Surprise, Surprise: Senegal became the first African nation to claim three points in this year’s World Cup as they took down Poland, 2-1.
Changing History: Japan hasn’t won back-to-back World Cup games since 2002.
Potential Lineup Change: Forward Shinki Okazaki, who plays for Leicester City, may start for Japan after coming off the bench in the team’s opening game vs Colombia.
Sadio Mane is projected to lead Senegal with close to a 29 percent chance to score vs Japan. He averages 2.34 shots overall per sim, 0.67 shots on goal per, and 0.34 goals per sim. Second behind him in AccuScore simualtions is M.Baye Babacar Niang with close to a 23 percent chance to score.
For Japan, Sjinji Kagawa and Yuya Osako have the best chances to score. Kagawa has close to a 45 percent chance to score, averaging 2.28 shots overall per sim, 0.95 shots on goal per, and 0.59 goals per sim. Osako has a 34.5 percent chance to score; he averages more shots overall than does Kagawa at 2.87 per sim, but fewer goals per sim (0.42).
Both Kagawa and Osako scored vs Colombia.
Japan to win.
The odds — at 3.58 — indicate there’s a 28 percent chance Japan wins this match. They win over 41 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting a ton of value on the underdog in this match.
The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 1.65 – 1.44, in favor of Japan.