While the FIFA World Cup will ultimately hoist a nation as its champ, there’s still plenty of individual accolades to go around, namely the Golden Boot award. Who will be this tournament’s top goal scorer?
In nine of the 10 World Cup tournaments since 1978, six goals have been enough to earn the award.
This year’s edition features Argentina’s Lionel Messi as the odds-on favorite to win the Golden Boot with a 10.3 percent chance of winning listed at 9.75 odds. Messi finished the 2017-2018 club season with the most goals in La Liga (34). It was the second-straight year in his career that he finished with the most goals in both La Liga and all European league competition. He’s done that five times now in his career, but back-to-back means he’s in top form heading into this year’s World Cup.
AccuScore on Messi
Messi is projected to finish the group stage with 1-to-2 goals, but the tournament with over four. He’s benefited by the variable that AccuScore data has Argentina going all the way, but he’s not in the top five even of goal scorers in the group stage.
Top Goal Scorer after Group Stage
Portugal’s Cristiano Ronald is projected to be atop of the individual goal scorer standings after the group stage with three-to-four goals. Portugal, however, are projected to lose in the Round of 16.
Golden Boot Projections
Brazil’s Neymar is projected to win the Golden Boot this tournament with five-to-six goals overall, on par with what we’ve seen in recent tournament history. As mentioned previously, six goals have been enough to win the award in past tournaments; AccuScore projectins suggest even five goals could be enough to win it this year.
The top five goal scorer projections are: Neymar (5.57), Poland’s Robert Lewandowski (5.05), Uruguay’s Edinson Cavani (4.36), Ronaldo (4.3), and Messi (4.02). Just missing the top-five cut are Uruguay’s Luis Suarez (3.83) and Argentina’s Sergio Agüero (3.63).
Looking at Dafabet’s Golden Boot Player Odds (below), there’s some glaring value on threeplayers.
• Lewandowski has the 14th best odds to win the Golden Boot, but averages the second-most goals for the tournament in AccuScore sims. AccuScore data is screaming value here.
• Neymar is listed as the second-highest favorite to win the award, but he scores almost a half-goal more than anyone else in AccuScore sims.
• Edinson Cavani has the ninth-best odds to win this award according to offshore odds, but AccuScore sims have him third behind Neymar and Poland.
Keep in mind, a lot of who to pick for this wager is dependent on which nations you think will go far. For example, if the individual placing the wager considers Portugal to be a threat in the quarterfinals or semifinals, a wager on Ronaldo is the way to go; AccuScore projects Portugal to lose in the Round of 16.
AccuScore projects the final four to be: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Germany.
Golden Boot Player Odds
Messi, Lionel – 9.75
Neymar Jr – 10.75
Griezmann, Antoine – 12.25
Ronaldo, Cristiano – 14.25
Werner, Timo – 14.75
Jesus, Gabriel – 15.50
Kane, Harry – 16.00
Lukaku, Romelu – 16.75
Cavani, Edinson – 24.00
Costa, Diego – 24.00
Suarez, Luis – 24.00
Aguero, Sergio – 26.00
Muller, Thomas – 30.00
Lewandowski, Robert – 31.00
Mbappe, Kylian – 31.00
Higuain, Gonzalo – 37.00