The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Sunday as fans are treated to a pair of teams in Germany and Mexico most football are familiar with. Germany’s a favorite to not only win this match, but also the tournament. Group F kicks off with these two sides facing off at Moscow’s Luzhniki Stadium.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 4.38 — indicate there’s a 22.8 percent chance of a draw. AccuScore sims, however, have a draw in 23.4 percent of matches, suggesting some added value on the draw but not much.
The average score in sims is 1.82 – 0.60, in favor of Germany.
El Tri: For Mexico, any chance at being competitive in this match and tournament overall rests on the shoulders of Hirving Lozano. He’s elusive in the open field and his style of attack can be a problem for any opponent, as many saw in his campaign at PSV Eindhoven. He’ll play opposite to Jesus Corona, making El Tri always tough to defend. Other than these two, keep an eye on Carlos Vela who has turned things around this past season in the MLS.
Managerial Inexperience: Mexico sailed through CONCACAF World Cup qualifying with ease, but maager Juan Carlos Osorio has never managed a team in the World Cup before. The roster has plenty of talent, but inexperience at this stage of the game could prove to be costly.
Reigning Champs: Germany, the reigning World Cup champs, boasts one of, if not the fiercest attacks in competition with Timo Werner and Thomas Muller leading the way as Mats Hummels and Jerome Boateng make things frustrating for opponents. Werner has seven international goals in just 13 appearances, and will be looking to build on that this summer in Russia.
Javier Hernández and Giovani dos Santos lead the way for Mexico in AccuScore sims. Hernández has the highest probability to score for his side, but dos Santos averages more shots overall, and more shots on goal. Hernández is projected to be a shade more accurate than his teammate.
For Germany, it’s Marco Reus and Timo Werner. Reus avrages fewer shots overall, but averages 0.47 goals per sim compared to Werner’s 0.33 per. Reus has approximately a 38 percent chance to net the ball, compared to Werner’s 29 percent chance. Germany has five players in AccuScore sims that have a greater probability to score than does Mexico’s dos Santos.
The odds — at 1.90 — indicate there’s a 52.6 percent chance Germany wins this match by more than a goal. They win approximately 66 percent of simulated matches, with the average margin of victory at +1.22 goals.