The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Monday as England and Tunisia go head to head in what’s one of the least-hyped appearances for the Three Lions. These two sides have met once before at the World Cup when England won 2-0 in the opening match of the 1998 tournament.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 4.47 — indicate there’s a 22.4 percent chance of a draw. AccuScore sims have a draw in 23 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.97 – 1.15, in favor of England.
Low Expectations: England have only reached the semi-finals of a tournament twice since winning the World Cup back in 1966.
Playing with Momentum: England are unbeaten in their last 10 matches, conceding a goal just three times in that span. The team switched over to having three at the back and that added flexibility has made quite the difference on the attacking side.
Back In: Tunisia enters the World Cup with plenty to prove. They’re back in the tournament after 12 years, and have proven to be a well-organized unit on defense.
Kane’s World: England’s Harry Kane has eight goals in his last seven international appearances for England.
Harry Kane leads the way for England in AccuScore simulations, with close to a 57 percent chance to score vs Tunisia. Kane averages 5.46 shots overall per sim, 1.42 shots on goal per, and 0.84 goals per sim. Raheem Sterling is second on the list with 3 shots overall per sim, 0.96 shots on goal per and 0.57 goals per sim, with close to a 44 percent chance to score.
Wahbi Khazri and Naim Sliti are projected to lead the way for Tunisia. Khazri has a 30 percent chance to score, averaging 2.51 shots overall per sim, 0.68 shots on goal per and 0.36 goals per sim. Sliti has a 22 percent chance of scoring as he averages 1.8 shots overall per sim, 0.72 shots on goal per and 0.26 goals per sim.
The odds — at 1.64 — indicates there’s a 59.5 percent chance the total combined score goes OVER 2. That happens in about 60 percent of simulations, confirming the confidence on the pick. We’re expecting England to score two of their own.