The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Tuesday as England and Colombia meet in Moscow Tuesday in the final Round of 16 matchup. England captain Harry Kane has been phenomenal so far, leading the way for the Golden Boot after the group stages.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.13 — indicate there’s a 32 percent chance the match ends in a draw (in regular time). There’s a draw in in 28 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.37 – 1.19, in favor of England
Managing Expectations: English fans didn’t really know what to necessarily expect heading into the tournament. Following their first few games though, and the exits of top nations like Spain and Portugal — expectations are once again high for England. Their side of the draw features Sweden/Switzerland and Russia, and getting past Colombia could help to punch a ticket down the road for the finals.
Injury: Colombia will most likely be without James Rodriguez and that is huge blow for the South American side. Colombia defeated Poland and Senegal in the group stage following their opening loss to Japan (2-1).
Head-to-Head: England beat Colombia in their only previous World Cup match — back in the group stages of the 1998 tournament. Goals from Darren Anderton and David Beckham resulted in a 2-0 win for England, with current coach Gareth Southgate playing an unused sub that day.
Harry Kane has a 47 percent chance to net the ball for England. Kane averages 3.55 shots overall persim, 1.19 shots on goal per, and 0.63 goals per sim.
For Colombia, Falcao has the highest probability to score at a 35.4 percent chance. He averages 1.64 shots overall per sim, 0.72 shots on goal per and 0.44 goals per sim.
Colombia to win
The odds — at 4.09 — indicate there’s close to a 24.5 percent chance Colombia wins this match. They win 31 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the underdogs. AccuScore sim data has quite a big of added/side value on Colombia, as they are much more competitive in sims than odds-makers are suggesting.
The safe(st) bet according to AccuScore sims would be Colombia +0.5. On average, the margin of victory is England +0.18 goals.