The 2018 FIFA World Cup continues Thursday as a pair of teams in England and Belgium get set to match up to decide who will finish Group G in first place.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.20 — indicate there’s a 31.3 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in in 23 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.19 – 1.35, in favor of Belgium.
Making History: Belgium have won both their last two World Cup matches by a margin of three goals each. No team has ever won three consecutive matches by three-plus goals.
Domination: England’s Harry Kane has scored five goals in the group stages. The last player to score more goals than Kane in the first round of the World Cup was Russia’s Oleg Salenko in 1994 with six goals.
Head-to-Head: This will be just the third meeting between England and Belgium at the World Cup, with England unbeaten in the previous matches.
Both Lukaku and Dries Mertens have over a 40 percent chance to net the ball vs England. Lukaku averages 2.21 shots overall per sim, 0.88 shots on goal per, and 0.58 goals per sim. Mertens averages 2.9 shots overall, 0.84 shots on goal per sim, and 0.53 goals per sim.
Lukaku has four goals from four shots on target in this year’s World Cup.
For England, it’s none other than Harry Kane leading the way in simulations. He averages close to four shots overall, 2-plus shots on goal per sim, and 0.6 goals per sim.
Kane has scored at least one goal in his last five matches for England. The last player to score in six games straight for England was Tommy Lawton, way back in 1939.
Belgium to win.
The odds — at 2.86 — indicate there’s close to a 35 percent chance Belgium wins this match. They win 55 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting quite a bit of added value on the Red Devils.