Stoke City host Burnley in Premier League action this Sunday as the home side need three points to keep battling relegation. Paul Lambert’s Stoke City team find themselves five points from safety in the standings, while Sean Dyche and Burnley will look to play spoiler.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.19 — indicate there’s about a 31 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 36 percent of matches, suggesting some added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 0.83 – 0.72, in favor of Stoke City.
Head-to-Head: Burnley recorded a 1-0 home win over Stoke earlier in the season, their second straight home win over the Potters.
• Burnley have lost just one of their last six against the Potters in the league, with three wins, one draw and one loss.
• Both teams have not scored in the last four meetings between these sides.
• Five of the last six meetings between Burnley and Stoke have gone under 2.5 goals.
Ashley Barnes leads Burnley in the simulated matches, averaging close to two shots overall with about a 21 percent chance of scoring. He averages 0.51 shots on goal, and 0.24 goals per sim.
Shaqiri has the highest probability to net the ball for Stoke — at about 19 percent — but Jean-Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting averages the most shots overall, 2.5 compared to Shaqiri’s 2.37 per sim.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend, mainly because the sim data is suggesting more value than what most books are offering. Our sim data is suggesting about 6 percent more in added value on the pick.