AC Milan will be looking for a win this weekend over Fiorentina in the hopes of qualifying for the Europa league next week. Milan, the hosts, enter the match after a 1-1 draw vs Atalanta, while Fiorentina enters this weekend after a surprising loss to Cagliari.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.97 — indicate there’s about a 25 percent chance of a draw. AccuScore sims, however, have a draw in about 29 percent of matches, suggesting some added on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.37 – 1.05, in favor of Milan.
Last 6 Matches: Milan has 2 wins, 1 loss and three draws in their last six matches. Fiorentina has 3 wins, 2 losses and a draw in their last six.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last met in December 2017 in a 1-1 draw. Prior to that, in February 2017, AC Milan won 2-1.
Giovanni Semeone averages two-plus shots per sim, 0.79 shots on goal per and 0.28 goals per; he has a 25 percent chance of netting the ball this weekend.
Jesús Joaquín Fernández Sáenz de la Torre — aka Suso — averages almost 2.5 shots overall per sim, over 1 shot on goal, and 0.28 goals per sim; he has a 24 percent chance of scoring.
Milan wins in regulation.
There’s no added value on this pick from the sims, but all signs point to Milan winning this outright. The odds — at 1.84 — indicate there’s a 54 percent chance Milan wins in regulation. They do that in 43 percent of AccuScore sims, quite a bit lower than the odds listed in most books. With that said, though, Milan is playing with a goal in mind, and their opponents are not. Milan winning is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.