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Serie A – AC Milan vs Fiorentina

Posted by Website Admin on May 17, 2018

AC Milan will be looking for a win this weekend over Fiorentina in the hopes of qualifying for the Europa league next week. Milan, the hosts, enter the match after a 1-1 draw vs Atalanta, while Fiorentina enters this weekend after a surprising loss to Cagliari.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

Dafabet Odds

1×2
• AC Milan: 1.84
• Draw: 3.97
• Fiorentina: 4.29
Total
• OVER 3: 2.09
• UNDER 3: 1.81

What to Watch For

Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.97 — indicate there’s about a 25 percent chance of a draw. AccuScore sims, however, have a draw in about 29 percent of matches, suggesting some added on the draw.

The average score in sims is 1.37 – 1.05, in favor of Milan.

Last 6 Matches: Milan has 2 wins, 1 loss and three draws in their last six matches. Fiorentina has 3 wins, 2 losses and a draw in their last six.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last met in December 2017 in a 1-1 draw. Prior to that, in February 2017, AC Milan won 2-1.

Projected Leaders

Giovanni Semeone averages two-plus shots per sim, 0.79 shots on goal per and 0.28 goals per; he has a 25 percent chance of netting the ball this weekend.

Jesús Joaquín Fernández Sáenz de la Torre — aka Suso — averages almost 2.5 shots overall per sim, over 1 shot on goal, and 0.28 goals per sim; he has a 24 percent chance of scoring.

Analyst’s Pick

Milan wins in regulation.

There’s no added value on this pick from the sims, but all signs point to Milan winning this outright. The odds — at 1.84 — indicate there’s a 54 percent chance Milan wins in regulation. They do that in 43 percent of AccuScore sims, quite a bit lower than the odds listed in most books. With that said, though, Milan is playing with a goal in mind, and their opponents are not. Milan winning is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.