The Philadelphia Union get set to host Toronto FC after losing just one of seven home games so far this season. Toronto heads into the matchup as one of just two teams in the MLS with no road wins this season.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.67 — indicate there’s a 27 percent chance of a draw. AccuScore sims, however, have a draw in 25 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.9 – 1.52, in favor of Toronto FC.
Dominating at Home: Philadelphia has lost just one of their last 11 MLS home matches. They’ve scored 26 goals and conceded 11 in that span.
Head-to-Head: Toronto have zero losses in their last eight matches against the Union (6 wins, 2 draws), outscoring them 18-6 to go along with three clean sheets. These two sides last met in Philadelphia in March 2017, finishing in a 2-2 draw.
Toronto on the Road: The Reds have given up 14 goals in their five road games this season.
Sebastian Giovinco has the highest probability to score for Toronto, averaging over seven shots overall, over two on goal, and 0.66 goals per simulated match.
For the Union it’s Borek Dockal with about three shots overall, 1-plus on goal per sim, and 0.34 goals per sim.
Toronto FC to win.
This is a one-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend pick. Toronto winning is listed at 2.68, indicating about a 37 percent chance of happening. They win over 45 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the pick.