Crystal Palace host Manchester United Monday Night as Roy Hodgson continues to figure out a way to get out of the bottom three. Palace have not beaten Manchester United in decades, but there is some hope considering the Red Devils have lost their last two road EPL matches.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Injury Relief: Crystal Palace is expected to get Martin Kelly and Jeffrey Schlupp back in time for Monday’s fixture. Even with those two returning, Palace are without 10 senior players. Not surprising to see them sitting at the No. 17 spot in league standings.
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 4.22 — indicate about a 23.7 percent chance of happening. Accuscore sims have a draw in about 20.5 percent of matches, suggesting to stay away from the draw pick.
The average score in sims is 2.26 – 0.94, in favor of Man U.
Head-to-Head: Palace haven’t won any of their 17 EPL contests with Manchester United – the most matches a team has played against another without a victory. They have 3 draws and 14 losses in those 17 matches.
Paul Pogba: Pogba scored here last season. Will he score again this time around? Our sims suggest he has a 21-to-22 percent chance of scoring, averaging over 3 shots overall and close to 1 on goal. Palace is the only team Pogba has scored against, both home and away.
Lukaku has the highest probability of scoring for Man U, averaging over 1 shot on goal per sim, and 0.56 goals per sim; he has close to a 43 percent chance of scoring.
Milivojevic has the highest probability of scoring for Palace at about a 19-to-20 percent chance of netting the ball; he averages 0.46 shots on goal per sim and 0.22 goals per sim.
It’s a pricey option, but the value is there. At 1.56, the odds indicate about a 64 percent chance of winning. Man City wins about 66 percent of simulated matchups, confirming a pick on the road side Monday night. Plus, Man U money line is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.