Manchester City gets set to host Brighton this Saturday at Etihad Stadium as the home side comes off a convincing 5-0 league win on the road vs Cardiff City. Brighton, on the other hand, are winless in their last four, with a 2-1 loss to Tottenham being the the latest defeat.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Manchester City: 1.10
• Draw: 11.34
• Brighton & Hove Albion: 29.02
• Manchester City -2.5: 1.80
• Brighton & Hove Albion +2.5: 2.14
• Over 3.5: 1.83
• Under 3.5: 2.07
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 11.34 — indicate there’s under a 9 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 14 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.75 – 0.70, in favor of Man City.
Road Struggles: Brighton haven’t won on the road in any competition in the last 15 games overall. Pep Guardiola’s side won both their meetings vs the Seagulls in the last campaign.
Dominating the Competition: In their six Premier League fixtures this season, Man City have won by three or more goals in three games.
Will Sterling Score?: Raheem Sterling racked up 23 goals in all competitions for Manchester City last season. He’s off to a hot start this campaign, scoring three goals in his first five Premier League games. Odds, at 10/11, indicate he has about a 52 percent chance to net the ball.
Sterling scores in 47 percent of AccuScore sims, averaging 3.31 shots overall, 1.65 shots on goal per, and 0.62 goals per sim.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last met in Premier League action back in May 2018 when Man City won 3-1 after leading 2-1 at halftime. City won the previous matchup, 2-0, after being tied 0-0 at the break.
Glenn Murray has a 29 percent chance to score for Brighton & Hove Albion. He averages 0.96 shots overall per sim, 0.51 shots on goal per, and 0.34 goals per sim. Teammate Anthony Knockaert averages more shots overall, but fewer shots on goal per sim.
For Manchester City, it’s none other than Sergio Agüero leading the way. He has close to a 60 percent chance to score, averaging 5-plus shots overall per sim, 2.32 shots on goal per, and 0.88 goals per sim.
Brighton & Hove Albion +2.5
AccuScore sim data heavily favors Man City — and rightfully so — but the simulations suggest a closer outcome than most offshore odds are indicating. The average margin of victory for Man City is +2.05 goals, so we’re expecting the the visitors to stay within a pair of goals.