Mexican Liga action continues this Sunday as Tigres UANL will look to build on their 2-0 home victory over Leon as they host Tijuana in their second week of action. Tijuana also got a week in their opening match last week, a 2-1 result over Guadalajara behind goals from Juan Lucero and Ignacio Rivero.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
• OVER 2.5: 2.19
• UNDER 2.5: 1.74
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.59 — indicate there’s a 28 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in just 17 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added or side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.34 – 0.57, in favor of Tigres UANL.
Tijuana +0.5 First Half Handicap: Watch for Tijuana — especially in the first half — to be a little more aggressive. They got a 2-1 win last week, but finished in a goalless draw mid-week vs Juarez in the Copa MX.
Betting Trends: Tijuana have just 1 win in their last 13 road league fixtures. They also haven’t scored a goal in seven of their last 10 away matches.
Head-to-Head: Tigres have won their last six matchups vs Tijuana, keeping a clean sheet in all matches. They last met earlier in March when Tigres won 1-0 at home.
Alfredo Moreno and Diego Gonzalez lead the way for Tijuana in AccuScore sims. Moreno has the best chance to net the ball — at a 16-to-17 percent chance — but Gonzalez averages more shots overall. Moreno averages 1.52 shots overall per sim, 0.78 shots on goal per, and 0.18 goals per sim; Gonzalez averages close to two shots overall, 0.42 shots on goal per, and 0.15 goals per sim.
Four players for Tigres UANL have a higher probability to score than do Moreno and Gonzalez for Tijuana. André-Pierre Gignac leads the way averaging close to five shots overall, 2-plus shots on goal, and 1-plus goal per sim; he has close to a 65 percent chance to score.
Tigres to win.
The odds — at 1.64 — indicate there’s about a 60-to-61 percent chance Tigres UANL get the win. That happens in close to 77 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the pick. This is also a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.