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Liga MX – Tijuana vs Tigres UANL

Posted by Website Admin on July 30, 2018

Mexican Liga action continues this Sunday as Tigres UANL will look to build on their 2-0 home victory over Leon as they host Tijuana in their second week of action. Tijuana also got a week in their opening match last week, a 2-1 result over Guadalajara behind goals from Juan Lucero and Ignacio Rivero.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• UANL Tigres: 1.64
• Draw: 3.59
• Tijuana: 5.19
Spread
• Tigres -0.5, -1: 1.95
• Tijuana +0.5, 1: 1.97

Total
• OVER 2.5: 2.19
• UNDER 2.5: 1.74

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.59 — indicate there’s a 28 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in just 17 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added or side value on the draw.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.34 – 0.57, in favor of Tigres UANL.

Tijuana +0.5 First Half Handicap: Watch for Tijuana — especially in the first half — to be a little more aggressive. They got a 2-1 win last week, but finished in a goalless draw mid-week vs Juarez in the Copa MX.

Betting Trends: Tijuana have just 1 win in their last 13 road league fixtures. They also haven’t scored a goal in seven of their last 10 away matches.

Head-to-Head: Tigres have won their last six matchups vs Tijuana, keeping a clean sheet in all matches. They last met earlier in March when Tigres won 1-0 at home.

Projected Leaders

Alfredo Moreno and Diego Gonzalez lead the way for Tijuana in AccuScore sims. Moreno has the best chance to net the ball — at a 16-to-17 percent chance — but Gonzalez averages more shots overall. Moreno averages 1.52 shots overall per sim, 0.78 shots on goal per, and 0.18 goals per sim; Gonzalez averages close to two shots overall, 0.42 shots on goal per, and 0.15 goals per sim.

Four players for Tigres UANL have a higher probability to score than do Moreno and Gonzalez for Tijuana. André-Pierre Gignac leads the way averaging close to five shots overall, 2-plus shots on goal, and 1-plus goal per sim; he has close to a 65 percent chance to score.

Analyst’s Pick

Tigres to win.

The odds — at 1.64 — indicate there’s about a 60-to-61 percent chance Tigres UANL get the win. That happens in close to 77 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the pick. This is also a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.