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Liga MX – Morelia vs Santos

Posted by Website Admin on July 30, 2018

Mexican Liga action continues this Friday on ESPN Deported as Morelia and Santos go head-to-head. It’s just the second week of the season, but Morelia will look to get a win after last week’s loss to Toluca. Santos — who got a 2-1 win over Lobos in week 1 — are the favorites despite being the road team.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Morelia: 2.67
• Draw: 3.34
• Santos: 2.46
Total
• OVER 2.5: 1.87
• UNDER 2.5: 2.03

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.34 — indicate there’s a 30 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 32 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added or side value on the draw.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.2 – 0.8, in favor of Santos.

Betting on the Money Line: We’ve got a three-star (out of four) hot trend pick here. Odds — at 2.67 — indicate Morelia has a 37.5 percent chance to win this matchup. They win close to 45 percent of AccuScore sims, though — suggesting some added value on the pick.

Santos have not won at this stadium since 2015.

Head-to-Head: The last two games played between the two at Estadio Morelos ended in 1-1 draws.

Projected Leaders

Julio Furch leads the way for Santos in AccuScore sims. He averages close to three shots overall per sim, close to one shot on goal per, and 0.41 goals per sim; he has close to a 34 percent chance to net the ball.

Mario Humberto Osuna has the best chance to score for Morelia at 23.16% probability. He averages 2.26 shots overall per sim, 0.44 shots on goal per and 0.27 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

UNDER 2.5

The average combined score total for this matchup is 2.0 goals — a two-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The odds — at 2.03 — indicate there’s about a 49 percent the total combined score stays below 2.5; the total hits the UNDER in 68 percent of AccuScore sims. Also, UNDER 2.5 goals has hit in the last three matchups between these two sides.