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Liga MX – Leon vs Monterrey

Posted by Website Admin on July 30, 2018

Mexican Liga action continues this Sunday as Club Leon and Monterrey go head-to-head in the second week of the season. Leon lost 0-2 last week vs Tigres UANL, while Monterrey got a 1-0 win on the road vs Pachuca.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Club Leon: 3.01
• Draw: 3.35
• Monterrey: 2.23
Spread
• Leon +0.5: 1.90
• Monterrey -0.5: 2.02

Total
• OVER 2.5, 3: 2.08
• UNDER 2.5, 3: 1.82

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.35 — indicate there’s a 30 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in about 31 percent of AccuScore sims.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.28 – 0.73, in favor of Monterrey.

Betting on the Total: The odds the UNDER — at 1.82 — indicate there’s a 55 percent chance the total combined score stays below 3 goals. That happens in close to 69 percent of AccuScore sims, a four star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The total combined score in simulations is 2.01 goals.

First Team to Score: Monterrey have scored first in six of their last seven road matches.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last met in February when Monterrey got a 5-1 win at home. Monterrey are 5-0-2 in their last seven vs Leon.

Projected Leaders

Dorlan Pabón has the best chance to score for Monterrey; he averages 4-plus shots overall per sim, 1.59 shots on goal per, and 0.49 goals per sim with close to a 39 percent chance to score.

For Leon, both Mauro Boselli and Luis Montes are projected to lead the way. They each average 0.13 goals per sim, but Montes averages more shots overall per sim (1.45 vs 1.01).

Analyst’s Pick

Monterrey to win.

The odds — at 2.23 — indicate there’s about a 45 percent chance Monterrey gets the win. That happens in close to 48.5 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the pick. This is also a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.