The battle for the final relegation spot — more than likely — comes down to this week’s match when Swansea City host Southampton. The visitors sit ahead of the hosts in the standings just on goal difference.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.20 — indicate there’s about a 31 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 34 percent of matches, suggesting some added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 0.99 – 0.82, in favor of Swansea City.
Swansea’s Struggles: No team has scored fewer Premier League goals this campaign than Swansea City. They have netted the ball just 27 times in 36 total matches.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last met in August, finishing in a 0-0 draw . The scoreless draw is currently listed at 11/5 (3.20) odds in most books.
Charlie Austin leads the way for Southampton in the simulations, averaging close to two shots overall, 0.85 shots on goal, and 0.35 goals per sim; he has about a 29 percent chance to net the ball.
For Swansea, it’s Jordan Ayew leading the way; he averages 1-to-2 shots overall per sim, 0.57 shots on goal per sim, and 0.26 goals per sim. He has about a 19.5 percent chance to score.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The odds — at 3.13 — indicate there’s about a 32 percent chance Swansea wins outright in regulation time. They win over 37 percent of simulated matches, suggesting some added value on the pick.