Stoke City and Crystal Palace face off this weekend in Premier League action as Stoke continues to fight the battle against relegation. Crystal Palace is in the safe zone for now, but still need to keep achieving results to stay safe.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.39 — indicate there’s about a 29.5 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 27.5 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.51 – 1.12, in favor of Palace.
Recent Form: Stoke practically need to win their final two games to have any sort of a shot at surviving the battle against relegation. They’re without a victory in their last 12 Premier League matchups, and now face a Palace side that domianted Leicester 5-0 the last time they played.
Scoring Punch: Luka Milivojevic has been impressive on the road, scoring six goals in his last nine road matches. Six of his last eight goals have come on the road. A wager on Milivojevic to score any time this game isn’t a bad bet considering his recent production.
Luka Milivojevic and Wilfried Zaha lead the way for Palace in the simulations. Milivojevic averages 1-to-2 shots overall, with about a 31 percent chance of netting the ball; Zaha averages over two shots overall per sim, and has a 24-to-25 percent chance of scoring.
For Stoke, Shaqiri and Mame Biram Diouf each have about a 23 percent chance of scoring.
Palace to win.
We’re always looking for value, and that’s exactly what we’ve got here. Based on the odds listed in most books, our sim data is suggesting more value on Palace, and less on Stoke.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The odds — at 2.78 — indicate there’s about a 36 percent chance Palace wins outright in regulation time. They win over 45 percent of simulated matches, suggesting some added value on the pick.