Everton will look to win back-to-back games for just the second time this season as they head into this weekend’s home match vs Southampton following a 2-0 victory over Huddersfield. Everton have very little to play for sitting in the No. 8 spot in the Premier League, but Southampton will be fighting for their lives as they continue to battle relegation.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.30 — indicate there’s about a 30 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims have a draw in about 29 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is1.37 – 1.08, in favor of Everton.
Historically Dominant: Everton have not lost at home to Southampton since over 20 years. In the 12 home games since their last loss in 1997, Everton have won nine and finished in a draw three times.
Head-to-Head: These two sides last met at Goodison in January of 2017 when Everton won 3-0. They got goals from Enner Valencia, Leighton Baines and Romelu Lukaku in that fixture.
Last Six: Everton heads into this match having won three, draw two and lost one in their last six. Southampton, in their last six, have won once, drawn once, and los four.
Charlie Austin leads the way for Southampton in the simulations, averaging approximately two shots overall, close to one on goal per sim, and 0.47 goals per sim; he has over a 38 percent chance to net the ball.
Cenk Tosun and Wayne Rooney lead the way for Everton, each averaging 0.5 shots on goal per sim.
Everton to win.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Compared to the odds in most books, AccuScore sim data has Everton with a 10 percent higher chance of winning. They win over 42 percent of simulated matches — compared to the 31-to-32 percent chance in most books –suggesting some added value on the pick.