Southampton will keep fighting for survival this weekend when they host their south coast neighbors, AFC Bournemouth, at St. Mary’s Stadium. The hosts pretty much need a win as they sit four points below the safe zone line with just four games left to play.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 4.02 — indicate there’s about a 25 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in 30 percent of matches, suggesting some added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.39 – 0.88, Southampton.
Defensive Struggles: Bournemouth have conceded nine goals in their last four matches (over two per game) and have not kept a clean sheet in their last ten Premier League fixtures.
Head-to-head: Southampton have won six, lost one and finished twice in a draw in the last nine matchups vs Bournemouth.
• Bournemouth have lost three and finished once in a draw in their last four visits St. Mary’s.
Callum Wilson is projected to lead the way for Bournemouth, averaging 1-to-2 shots per sim, 0.38 shots on goal per sim, and 0.22 goals per sim; he has about a 20 percent chance of netting the ball.
For Southampton, Charlie Austin leads the way in sims with 2-plus shots overall, 1-plus shot on goal, and 0.62 goals per sim; he has close to a 47 percent chance of scoring.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend, mainly because the sim data is suggesting more value than what most books are offering. The last two matchups between these two sides have finished in a draw.