Liverpool will look to keep the momentum going this weekend as they host Bournemouth at Anfield after a dominating win over Manchester City in the Champions League. Bournemouth head into this fixture following back-to-back 2-2 results.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 6.53 — indicate there’s about a 15 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 12-to-13 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 2.93 – 0.62, in favor of Liverpool.
Head-to-head: These sides ended in a 2-2 draw last time out. Liverpool 5-1-1 in their last seven meetings with Bournemouth.
Firmino vs Bournemouth: Roberto Firmino has had a hand in four goals in his last four Premier League matches vs Bournemouth, recording two goals and two assists. Firmino averages 2.5 shots overall per sim, 1.11 shots on goal and 0.58 goals per sim; he has a 44 percent chance of netting the ball.
• Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 18 Premier League matches at home, with 11 wins and seven draws.
• Bournemouth have only won two of their last 17 away games against ‘big six’ opponents in the Premier League, with both wins coming at Chelsea.
• Mohamed Salah is just one goal away from becoming the eighth player to score 30+ goals in a single Premier League season, potentially becoming the first African to do so.
Mo Salah is projected to score at least one goal this weekend, averaging 4-plus shots overall per sim, 2.07 shots on goal per, and 1.22 goals per; he has close to a 71 percent chance of netting the ball.
For Bournemouth, it’s Callum Wilson and Junior Stanislas with the highest probabilities of scoring. Wilson has about a 16 percent chance of scoring, and Junior has about a 12 percent chance, with both of them averaging fewer than 0.20 goals per sim.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend, mainly because the sim data is suggesting more value than what most books are offering. The odds — at 1.27 — indicate there’s about a 78 percent chance Liverpool wins. They win over 82 percent of simulated matches, suggesting quite a bit of value even at 1.27.