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EPL – Burnley vs Cardiff City

Posted by Website Admin on September 28, 2018

Matej Vydra Burnley Premier League

Cardiff City look to bounce back from a 5-0 loss vs Manchester City when they host Burnley this Sunday at Cardiff City Stadium.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Cardiff City: 2.62
• Draw: 3.02
• Burnley FC: 3.16
Spread
• Cardiff City -0.5: 2.21
• Burnley FC +0.5: 1.75
Total
• OVER 2: 1.90
• UNDER 2: 2.00

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 3.02 — indicate there’s a 33 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 29 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added value on the draw.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.4 – 1..08, in favor of Cardiff City

Bottom 3: Cardiff City are currently ranked in No. 19 of 20 teams in the Premier League. They — along with Huddersfield — are on track to be guaranteed to finish in the bottom three.

Recent Struggles: Cardiff have lost their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 3-12.

Head-to-Head: Each of the last three matchups between these two teams resulted in a draw. Overall, Cardiff have won 35 percent of the head-to-head matchups with Burnley; Burnley have won 34 percent of matchups vs Cardiff.

Betting Trend: Cardiff have not lost in 13 matches across all competitions vs Burnley since a 0-2 loss at Turf Moor in April 2007. They have four wins and nine draws in that span.

Projected Leaders

Matej Vydra has close to a 39 percent chance to net the ball for Burnley. He averages 1.71 shots overall per sim, 0.68 shots on goal per, and 0.50 goals per sim.

On the other side for Cardiff City, we’ll have our eyes on Daniel Ward who has a 33 percent chance to score. He averages 1.48 shots overall per sim, 0.87 shots on goal per and 0.39 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Cardiff City to win.

Odds — at 2.62 — indicate there’s a 38 percent chance Cardiff City wins this match in regular time. That happens in over 43 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added side value on the pick. This is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend.