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EPL – Arsenal vs Watford

Posted by Website Admin on September 28, 2018

Arsenal — on a five-game winning streak — gets set to host Watford this weekend at Emirates Stadium. Arsenal enters this matchup after a 2-0 Premier League win over Everton, while Watford comes off a 1-1 draw vs Fulham.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

Dafabet Odds

Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Arsenal: 1.45
• Draw: 5.15
• Watford: 6.75
Spread
• Arsenal -1.5: 2.20
• Watford +1.5: 1.76
Total
• OVER 3: 1.72
• UNDER 3: 2.21

What to Watch For

Betting on the Draw: Odds — at 5.15 — indicate there’s a 19 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 22 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting some added value on the draw, but not much.

The average score after 10,000 simulations is 2.37 – 1.28, in favor of Arsenal.

Similar Styles: Watford currently sit one point ahead of Arsenal following a strong start to the season. A win this weekend could be crucial, standings-wise. Tactically, both teams have some similar formations — using a 4-4-2 to defend off the ball and allow for counterattacks from the outside. Watch for both teams’ midfielders to dictate the pace of the game, with two holding midfielders roaming for both Arsenal and Watford.

Head-to-Head: These two sides last faced off in Premier League action back in March 2018 when Arsenal won convincingly, 3-0, behind goals from Shkodran Mustafi, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, and Henrikh Mkhitaryan.

Projected Leaders

Andrew Gray has a 26 percent chance to score for Watford, according to AccuScore sim data. He averages 1.24 shots overall per sim, 0.55 shots on goal per and 0.30 goals per sim.

For Arsenal, we’ll have our eyes on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang who has a 47-to-48 percent chance to score. He averages 2.7 shots overall per sim, 1.15 shots on goal per, and 0.66 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

Watford +1.5.

AccuScore sim data still picks Arsenal to win this match, but projects it to be more competitive than most offshore odds are suggesting. The average margin of victory for Arsenal in AccuScore sims is +1.09 goals.