Arsenal host Southampton this weekend in a match where the visiting side desperately needs some points to avoid relegation. Arsenal, on the other hand, really have nothing to play for beyond competitive pride. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 22 home league games against Southampton — with 16 wins ans six draws — since a 0-1 loss in 1987.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 4.49 — indicate there’s about a 22 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 22 percent of matches, suggesting no added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 2 – 0.68, in favor of Arsenal.
Head-to-Head: Arsenal are 3-2-2 in their last seven against of their last seven meetings with Southampton.
Man Down: Arsenal will be without Henrikh Mkhitaryan after he went down with a knee injury during their 4-1 win over CSKA Moscow earlier in the week.
Recent Struggles: Southampton have lost their last two league games, both by a 3-0 margin.
Guido Carillo leads the way for Southampton in the simulated matches — averaging about 1 shot overall, 0.42 shots on goal, and 0.21 goals per sim; he has a 19.5 percent chance of netting the ball.
Aubameyang dominates the sims for Arsenal, averaging close to three shots overall per sim, 1.5 shots on goal per sim and 0.93 goals per; he has close to a 61 percent chance of scoring.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The odds — at 1.71 — indicate Arsenal have about a 58.5 percent chance of winning. They win 67.4 percent of simulated games, suggesting some added value on that pick.