Arsenal have won their last six Premier League games overall, but five of those have come at home. Their last road trip resulted in a league loss to Brighton — can Newcastle get a win this weekend to ensure safety from relegation?
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.61 — indicate there’s about a 27.7 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims have a draw in exactly the same percentage of matches, suggesting no added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.51 – 1.26, in favor of Arsenal.
Head-to-Head: Arsenal have won the last three Premier League matches against Newcastle — all by a 1-0 margin. They are on a four-game winning streak at St James’ Park in Premier League action.
Recent Injuries: Newcastle got Mohamed Diame back in the lineup for the Leicester game. Islam Slimani looks fully healthy this week following an injury-hit loan spell. Diame averages about 1 shot overall per sim, 0.4 shots on goal and 0.17 goals per sim; he has about a 16 percent chance of scoring.
Aubameyang leads Arsenal in the simulated matches, averaging 2-plus shots overall, 1-plus shots on goal per sim, and 0.69 goals per sim; he has about a 50 percent chance of netting the ball.
Dwight Gayle has the highest probability of netting the ball for Newcastle with a 23 percent chance of scoring. Gayle averages 0.57 shots on goal per sim and 0.26 goals per sim.
The odds — at 2.11 — indicate there’s about a 47 percent chance of happening; our sims have the UNDER in about 49 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick.