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EPL – Arsenal vs Newcastle

Posted by Website Admin on April 13, 2018

Arsenal have won their last six Premier League games overall, but five of those have come at home. Their last road trip resulted in a league loss to Brighton — can Newcastle get a win this weekend to ensure safety from relegation?

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

Dafabet Odds

Spread
• Newcatle +0.5: 2.03
• Arsenal -0.5: 1.90
Total
• OVER 2.5: 1.80
• UNDER 2.5: 2.11

What to Watch For

Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.61 — indicate there’s about a 27.7 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims have a draw in exactly the same percentage of matches, suggesting no added value on the draw.

The average score in sims is 1.51 – 1.26, in favor of Arsenal.

Head-to-Head: Arsenal have won the last three Premier League matches against Newcastle — all by a 1-0 margin. They are on a four-game winning streak at St James’ Park in Premier League action.

Recent Injuries: Newcastle got Mohamed Diame back in the lineup for the Leicester game. Islam Slimani looks fully healthy this week following an injury-hit loan spell. Diame averages about 1 shot overall per sim, 0.4 shots on goal and 0.17 goals per sim; he has about a 16 percent chance of scoring.

Projected Leaders

Aubameyang leads Arsenal in the simulated matches, averaging 2-plus shots overall, 1-plus shots on goal per sim, and 0.69 goals per sim; he has about a 50 percent chance of netting the ball.

Dwight Gayle has the highest probability of netting the ball for Newcastle with a 23 percent chance of scoring. Gayle averages 0.57 shots on goal per sim and 0.26 goals per sim.

Analyst’s Pick

The UNDER.

The odds — at 2.11 — indicate there’s about a 47 percent chance of happening; our sims have the UNDER in about 49 percent of simulations, suggesting some added value on the pick.