Everton and AFC Bournemouth match up this Sunday at Goodison Park. Everton have matched up with Bournemouth three times in Premier League competition, winning all three and scoring 10 combined goals.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value is at in this match.
Team to Win (Regular Time)
• Everton FC: 1.78
• Draw: 4.00
• AFC Bournemouth: 4.61
• Everton -0.5, -1: 2.00
• AFC Bournemouth +0.5, +1: 1.93
• Over 3: 2.12
• Under 3: 1.79
What to Watch For
Betting on the Draw: Odds indicate there’s a 32 percent chance the match ends in a draw. There’s a draw in 30 percent of AccuScore sims, suggesting no added side value on the draw.
The average score after 10,000 simulations is 1.22 – 1.02, in favor of Cardiff City.
Recent Struggle: Everton will look to avoid losing three consecutive home Premier League matches for the first time since March 2016.
Scoring vs Winning: Since 2012, only one player has scored more than Everton’s Gylfi Sigurðsson in which they’re on the losing side. Sigurðsson has 14 goals in that span, with Romelu Lukaku the only player with more (15) goals in losses.
Head to Head: These two sides last met in August 2018 – finishing in 2-2 draw.
Callum Wilson has a 28-to-29 percent chance to score for Bournemouth this weekend. He averages 1.7 shots overall, 0.67 shots on goal per and 0.34 goals per sim.
For Everton, we’ll have our eyes on Gylfi Sigurðsson who has a 40 percent chance to score in this match. He averages 2.52 shots overall per sim, 0.92 shots on goal per and 0.5 goals per sim.
AccuScore sim data still has Everton as the favorites to win this match, but projections look a lot closer than odds indicate. Offshore odds give Bournemouth just a 20 percent chance to win the match; AccuScore gives them a 27-to-28 percent chance to win, suggesting some added side value on this game being closer than expected.