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English League One: Rochdale Vs Fleetwood

Posted by Website Admin on March 20, 2018

Rochdale gets set for a match with Fleetwood Town Tuesday coming off a draw against Wimbledon and league wins over Rotherham United and Walsall. Fleetwood enters this week’s matchup following two draws against Plymouth Argyle and Milton Keynes.

Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.

Dafabet Odds

1X2
• Rochdale to win: 1.99
• Draw: 3.26
• Fleetwood to win: 3.71
Total
• OVER 2.5: 1.95
• UNDER 2.5: 1.76

Key Betting Trends
• Fleetwood have conceded OVER 0.5 goals in each of their their last 12 games.
• Fleetwood Town have won OVER 3.5 corners in their last 8 games.

What to Watch For

Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.26 — indicate there’s about a 30.7 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims have a draw in about 22.7 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.

The average score in sims is 1.83 – 0.63, in favor of Rochdale.

Relegation: The Rochdale defensive wall came up sub-par against AFC Wimbledon in Saturday’s 1-1 draw, something to keep an eye on Tuesday. Fighting relegation, Rochdale can’t afford to give up any points.

Head-to-Head: These two sides finished in a 2-2 draw the last time they met in October 2017. In fact, the last five matchups between these two have resulted in 3 draws and two Rochdale wins.

Projected Leaders

Jordie Hiwula-Mayifuila leads Fleetwood in the simulations, averaging 0.39 shots on goal per sim, and 0.22 goals per sim. He has about a 19 percent chance of scoring.

For Rochdale, Matt Done leads the way with over one shot on goal per sim, and 0.7 goals per sim. He has over a 51 percent chance of netting the ball. Nearly just as dominant is Ian Henderson, who averages close to two shots on goal per sim; he has over a 48 percent chance of scoring.

Analyst’s Pick

Rochdale.

The odds — at 1.99 — indicate Rochdale have about a 50.2 percent chance of winning. They, however, win over 65 percent of simulations. AccuScore sim data would have listed their odds at 1.5, providing quite a bit of value to pick Rochdale at 1.99.