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Championship Pick: Cardiff vs Middlesbrough

Posted by Website Admin on February 16, 2018

Cardiff City welcome Middlesbrough this Saturday hoping to pick up three points as they trend up in the standings.

Key Betting Trends

• Cardiff City have not lost in four Championship matches.
• Middlesbrough have struggled on the road recently, having lost three of their last four away games.
• Middlesbrough have won four of their last six matches vs Cardiff.

Dafabet Odds

Spread
• Cardiff City to win: 2.42
• Draw: 3.15
• Middlesbrough to win: 3.14

Total
• OVER 2: 1.76
• UNDER 2: 2.16

What to Watch For

Above Expectations: Cardiff City have been phenomenal this season as they find themselves on the verge of promotion. Cardiff’s success this season has been directly related to a solid backline that will be looking to keep players like Britt Assombalonga and Patrick Bamford in check this weekend.

Assombalonga is projected to have 1-to-2 shots overall, averaging 0.52 shots on goal in sims; he has about a 22 percent chance of finding the back of the net.

Cardiff City holds the Boro to just 0.55 goals per simulated match.

Recent Stats: Numbers never lie, so let’s take a look at how these sides have done at home and on the road recently. Cardiff City has scored approximately 1.17 goals per match in their last six home contests; they have also conceded the same 1.17 goals per match in the last six at home.

The average score in sims for this match is 1.03 – 0.55, in favor of the home side.

Head-to-Head: The last three head-to-head matches between these two sides produced the following results: 1-0 Cardiff in 2015; 3-1 Middlesbrough in 2016; 1-0 Cardiff most recently in October of 2010.

The UNDER hit in two of the last three matches between the two sides.

Analyst’s Pick

The UNDER.

Not only is this a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend, but the odds indicate the UNDER has about a 46 percent chance of happening; the UNDER hits in about 52 percent of AccuScore sims, providing some value on that UNDER at 2.16.

Given the fact the Bluebirds are within 1 point of second-place Aston Villa, we’re expecting a defensive match this weekend. The Boro, too, will treat this match as a must-win, looking to place in the Championship playoffs.

Also keep in mind that Boro’s last four league matches have been low-scoring affairs UNDER 2.5 in three of the last four.