Bayern Munich and Real Madrid face off Wednesday in Champions League semi-final first-leg action at Allianz Arena. This will be the fourth time in the last seven seasons these two sides meet in the knockout stage of the tournament.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.79 — indicate there’s about a 26 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 24 percent of matches, suggesting no value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 2.11 – 1.36, in favor of Real Madrid.
Recent Form: Everton have two draws, a loss, and two wins in their last five matches; Newcastle have four wins and a loss.
Head-to-Head: Everton have won the last four meetings against Newcastle, recording a clean sheet each time. Newcastle have just one win over Everton since 2012.
• Since 2011-12, these clubs have met twice in the semi-finals, and once in the quarter-finals. Real Madrid won twice and Bayern Munich once.
• The total combined score went OVER 2.5 goals in five of those six matches.
Robert Lewandowski leads the the way for Bayern in sims, averaging three-plus shots per sim, approximately one shot on goal per sim, and 0.51 goals per sim; he has a 40 percent chance of netting the ball.
Cristiano Ronaldo averages over eight shots per sim for Real Madrid, with over three on goal. He averages one-plus goal per simulated match, with over a 67 percent chance of scoring.
Player Prop Bet
Ronaldo to score is being listed at 11/8 odds in most books, indicating about a 42 percent chance of happening. AccuScore sims are suggesting quite a bit of value on that pick with a 67 percent chance of scoring from the forecast’s perspective.
The pick is a three-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Our sim data — at the time of publication — is giving close to seven percent added value on Madrid compared to the odds listed in most books.