Liverpool are potentially moments away from reaching the Champions League final as they head into their second-leg competition with a three-goal lead over AS Roma. After Roma shocked the world with a 3-0 second-leg win over Barcelona in the quarterfinals, Liverpool dominated the Italian side 5-2 in the first leg behind goals from Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane and Roberto Firmino.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 4.03 — indicate there’s about a 25 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 25.5 percent of matches, suggesting little added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.89 – 1.33, Liverpool.
Salah’s Return: Wednesday’s match will see PFA Player of the Year, Salah, return to the home of his former club. He spent two seasons in Rome, where he scored 34 goals in 83 matches. Interestingly enough, Salah did not celebrate either of his two goals in the first leg, most likely out of respect for his old team. Salah’s two goals in the first leg upped his tally to 43 goals for the season. Let’s see if he has trouble containing his emotions if/when Liverpool win again.
Liverpool on the Road: The Reds have actually been fairly impressive on the road this season. They currently stand unbeaten on the road in the tournament so far, including a 5-0 win over Porto 5-0 and a 2-1 victory at Manchester City.
Mo Salah has over a 50 percent chance of netting the ball Wednesday, averaging close to five shots overall per sim, and over one shot on goal. Firmino averages over three shots overall, with approximately one on goal per sim.
For Roma, Edin Dzeko has the highest probability of scoring, with close to a 47 percent chance of netting the ball. He averages over three shots per sim, over one shot on goal, and 0.62 goals per sim. To compare, Salah averages 0.71 goals per sim.
Liverpool wins, again.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. The odds — at 2.58 — indicate there’s about a 39 percent chance Liverpool wins outright in regulation time. They win over 49 percent of simulated matches, suggesting some added value on the pick.
Analysis Provided By Accuscore