We’ve got a fun matchup Monday night as RB Leipzig gets set to host Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga action. The result of this match could have some major implications for Champions League positioning.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 3.65 — indicate there’s about a 27 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims, however, have a draw in about 24 percent of matches, suggesting no added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 2 – 1.25, in favor of Leipzig.
Head-to-Head: Monday’s match will be just the fourth time the two sides meet in Bundesliga action. Leipzig are unbeaten in the last three meetings, with two wins and 1 draw.
Recent Form: Leipzig are unbeaten in four Bundesliga games this year, including a statement 2-1 win over Bayern Munich.
Werner Dominating: Timo Werner is Leipzig’s top goalscorer with 11 goals this season along with five assists.
Volland on a Dry Spell: Kevin Volland has 49 Bundesliga goals, but hasn’t scored for Leverkusen in the last 724 minutes of action — his longest dry spell since joining the team.
Werner averages close to three shots overall per sim and has over a 45 percent chance of netting the ball. He averages over one shot on goal per sim, and 0.6 goals per sim.
For Leverkusen, it’s Lucas Alario and Volland that have the highest probabilities of scoring. Alario averages 0.62 shots on goal per sim and 0.34 goals per sim, with a 29 percent chance of scoring. Volland has a 26 percent chance of scoring, averaging 0.31 goals per sim.
The odds — at 2.31 — indicate Leipzig have about a 43 percent chance of winning. They win 53 percent of simulated games, suggesting some added value on the pick.