This Sunday will be Arsene Wenger’s last game at Emirates Stadium as Arsenal get set to host Burnley in Premier League action. The home side enter the match as fairly heavy favorites, having won their last four home matches.
Let’s take a closer look at where the value’s at in this match.
What to Watch For
Potential on the Draw: Odds — at 4.31 — indicate there’s about a 23 percent chance of a draw. Accuscore sims have a draw in about 25 percent of matches, suggesting very little added value on the draw.
The average score in sims is 1.7 – 0.83, Arsenal.
Dominant at Home: Arsenal have not only won their last four matches at home, but have also scored there-plus goals in each and every one of them.
Barnes on a Roll: Ashley Barnes has scored in six of Burnley’s last nine matches, including netting the ball against Chelsea. He’s listed at 17/5 odds to score anytime Sunday.
Head-to-Head: These two sides have met 11 times in the past, with Arsenal winning the majority of matchups. They have nine wins and one draw, with the only loss coming back in 2008. Arsenal and Burnley matched up at Turf Moor earlier this season when Alexis Sanchez’s goal secured the three points for Arsenal.
Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes lead the way for Burnley in AccuScore sims. Wood averages close to two shots overall per sim, 0.6 shots on goal per sim, and 0.29 goals per sim; he has about a 25 percent chance to net the ball. Barnes averages closer to one shot overall per sim, 0.43 shots on goal per sim, and 0.2 goals per sim; he has about an 18 percent chance to score Sunday on the road.
Aubameyang and Alex Lacazette dominate the simulations for Arsenal. Aubameyang averages approximately three shots overall, 1.45 shots on goal per sim, and 0.52 goals per sim; he has a 41 percent chance to score. Lacazette averages two shots overall, 1.14 shots on goal per sim, and 0.36 goals per sim; he has about a 31 percent chance to score Sunday.
UNDER 2.5 goals.
The pick is a four-star (out of four) AccuScore hot trend. Odds at 2.11 indicate there’s about a 47 percent chance the total combined score stays below 2.5. The total stays below that number in over 54 percent of AccuScore simulations, suggesting some added value on the UNDER.